Rancho Bernardo Housing Market Insights – December 2025 Analysis & 2026 Outlook
by Bernie Linden
As we close out 2025, the Rancho Bernardo single-family home market continues to reflect the broader dynamics shaping San Diego real estate. For homeowners, buyers, and investors, understanding these trends is critical for making informed decisions in a market that remains competitive yet nuanced.
Key Market Metrics: December 2025
Average Sales Price:
December’s average sales price held steady month-over-month but declined approximately 7% year-over-year (YOY). This signals a market correction from the highs of 2024, aligning with broader regional trends.
Price Per Square Foot:
Up 2% MOM, yet down 2% YOY, indicating that while overall home values have softened, buyers are still willing to pay a premium for well-located or upgraded properties.
Inventory Levels:
Active listings hit a year-low of 41, with new listings at just 21—underscoring a significant supply constraint. Months of supply continues to trend downward from the August peak of 4 months, now at 1.5 months, which remains above the five-year average. This imbalance between supply and demand is a key driver of pricing behavior.
Seller & Buyer Dynamics
Since May 2024, homes have consistently sold at or below asking price, with December closing at 97% of original list price. Interestingly, as prices have declined since June, the gap between list and close price has narrowed. This reflects a strategic shift: sellers are adjusting expectations early, pricing homes more realistically to align with market conditions.
Historical Perspective: Average November Sales Price
2025: $1.12M
2024: $1.16M
2023: $1.20M
2022: $957K
2021: $1.10M
This five-year trend illustrates the cyclical nature of the market and the importance of timing for both buyers and sellers.
For Buyers: Inventory remains tight, but opportunities exist for those prepared to act decisively. Partnering with a knowledgeable buyer’s agent can provide leverage in negotiations and access to off-market opportunities.
For Investors: The current correction may present entry points for long-term appreciation, particularly in desirable neighborhoods like Rancho Bernardo.
If you’d like a customized market analysis, insights on buyer representation, or to explore active listings, I welcome the opportunity to be your trusted real estate resource.
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Rancho Bernardo Housing Market Insights – December 2025 Analysis & 2026 Outlook
As we close out 2025, the Rancho Bernardo single-family home market continues to reflect the broader dynamics shaping San Diego real estate. For homeowners, buyers, and investors, understanding these trends is critical for making informed decisions in a market that remains competitive yet nuanced.
Key Market Metrics: December 2025
December’s average sales price held steady month-over-month but declined approximately 7% year-over-year (YOY). This signals a market correction from the highs of 2024, aligning with broader regional trends.
Up 2% MOM, yet down 2% YOY, indicating that while overall home values have softened, buyers are still willing to pay a premium for well-located or upgraded properties.
Active listings hit a year-low of 41, with new listings at just 21—underscoring a significant supply constraint. Months of supply continues to trend downward from the August peak of 4 months, now at 1.5 months, which remains above the five-year average. This imbalance between supply and demand is a key driver of pricing behavior.
Seller & Buyer Dynamics
Since May 2024, homes have consistently sold at or below asking price, with December closing at 97% of original list price. Interestingly, as prices have declined since June, the gap between list and close price has narrowed. This reflects a strategic shift: sellers are adjusting expectations early, pricing homes more realistically to align with market conditions.
Historical Perspective: Average November Sales Price
This five-year trend illustrates the cyclical nature of the market and the importance of timing for both buyers and sellers.
Current Market Snapshot (as of January 7, 2026)
Strategic Insights for 2026
If you’d like a customized market analysis, insights on buyer representation, or to explore active listings, I welcome the opportunity to be your trusted real estate resource.