San Diego’s Ultra‑Luxury Market Sees Major Inventory Shift — What’s Happening in the $5M+ Segment?
San Diego’s ultra‑luxury real estate market, defined here as single‑family homes priced $5 million and above, is undergoing one of its most interesting shifts in years. As we move through early 2026, both buyers and sellers in this elite segment are navigating rapid changes in supply, pricing behavior, and time‑on‑market patterns.
Whether you’re exploring the possibility of buying a luxury estate or considering listing your high‑end property, understanding today’s trends will help you make informed, strategic decisions in one of California’s most exclusive markets.
New Listings Hit a 24‑Month Low — Inventory Continues to Tighten
In December, just 21 new listings priced at $5M+ entered the market. That marks a dramatic slowdown, representing a second month in a row at this 24‑month low level of new inventory.
Here’s a snapshot of recent ultra‑luxury listing activity:
| Month |
New Listings ($5M+) |
| December |
21 |
| November |
21 |
| October |
36 |
| September |
43 |
| August |
39 |
| July |
46 |
The pattern is clear: San Diego’s ultra‑luxury homeowners are listing less frequently, creating an increasingly constrained environment for buyers seeking top‑tier properties.
Active Listings Drop for the 6th Straight Month
December’s slowdown wasn’t isolated. Overall active listings fell to just 99, marking the sixth consecutive month of declining inventory in the ultra‑luxury segment. This is the lowest number of active $5M+ listings since April 2023, when the market briefly dipped to 94.
As of January 16, the number has climbed to 173 active $5M+ homes, but this is still relatively tight supply considering the size and diversity of San Diego County.
For buyers, this means increased competition and fewer high‑quality options.
For sellers, it means rising visibility and reduced competition—an optimal environment for listing.
Pricing Trends: Rare Discounts Are Emerging
Historically, $5M+ homes in San Diego don’t sell at asking price. This segment typically includes architecturally significant estates, ocean‑view properties, gated compounds, and custom homes—each with unique features that can make pricing complex.
Recent data continues to support this pattern:
- In November, ultra‑luxury homes sold at 92% of their original asking price.
- It remains uncommon for homes in this tier to sell at asking, especially as buyers take a more value‑driven approach at higher price points.
However, despite occasional discounts, prices are holding steady overall—supported by shrinking supply and ongoing demand from both local and out‑of‑state buyers.
Months’ Supply Drops to a 5‑Year Low
One of the most telling indicators of market strength is Months’ Supply, which reflects how long it would take to sell all current inventory at the present pace.
- Current Months’ Supply: 4.1 months
- Last December: 8.1 months
- Trend: Consistently declining since April
A drop from 8.1 to 4.1 months in a year is significant—nearly a 50% contraction in supply. This places the $5M+ market near a five‑year inventory low, showing how dramatically new listings have slowed.
This tightening is creating a subtle shift in leverage:
- Sellers benefit from fewer competing listings
- Buyers must act strategically and quickly on standout properties
Days on Market Spike — But Here’s Why It’s Not What It Seems
Average Days on Market jumped in November, but the increase isn’t driven by slow‑selling new listings. Instead:
- Many newer listings were withdrawn during the holiday season, avoiding slower winter buyer activity.
- Homes that have been on the market longer stayed listed through December, increasing the average.
This skew suggests the spike is seasonal rather than a sign of falling demand in the ultra‑luxury tier.
Top San Diego Sale in December
The highest‑priced closed sale in December was:
- $18,000,000
- Located in La Jolla
- $2,016 per square foot
This underscores the continued strength of coastal luxury and the premium commanded by homes with exceptional views and location.
What Buyers Should Know Right Now
If you’re considering buying a $5M+ property in San Diego:
1. Inventory is Tightening
With new listings hitting two‑year lows, waiting may mean fewer options.
2. Negotiation Power Exists — But Only on Some Properties
Selling at ~92% of original list shows room for value‑driven offers on certain homes.
3. Unique Properties Move Fast
Homes in A+ locations or with modern upgrades don’t linger, even in a tight‑supply market.
What Sellers Should Know Right Now
If you’re thinking about listing your ultra‑luxury property:
1. You Have Less Competition Than Ever
Six straight months of declining inventory is a golden opportunity.
2. Buyers Are Still Active in This Price Range
Demand hasn’t disappeared—it’s simply more discerning.
3. Strategic Timing Can Maximize Your Sale Price
Listing before spring, while inventory remains low, can increase visibility and leverage.
Thinking About Buying or Selling a $5M+ Luxury Home in San Diego?
The ultra‑luxury market continues to evolve, offering unique opportunities for both buyers and sellers. With fewer new listings, rising demand, and tightening inventory, now is a crucial moment to understand your position and plan your next step.
If you’d like to explore current $5M+ opportunities or evaluate your home’s market value, I’d be happy to help build a strategy tailored to your goals.
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San Diego’s Ultra‑Luxury Market Sees Major Inventory Shift — What’s Happening in the $5M+ Segment?
San Diego’s Ultra‑Luxury Market Sees Major Inventory Shift — What’s Happening in the $5M+ Segment?
San Diego’s ultra‑luxury real estate market, defined here as single‑family homes priced $5 million and above, is undergoing one of its most interesting shifts in years. As we move through early 2026, both buyers and sellers in this elite segment are navigating rapid changes in supply, pricing behavior, and time‑on‑market patterns.
Whether you’re exploring the possibility of buying a luxury estate or considering listing your high‑end property, understanding today’s trends will help you make informed, strategic decisions in one of California’s most exclusive markets.
New Listings Hit a 24‑Month Low — Inventory Continues to Tighten
In December, just 21 new listings priced at $5M+ entered the market. That marks a dramatic slowdown, representing a second month in a row at this 24‑month low level of new inventory.
Here’s a snapshot of recent ultra‑luxury listing activity:
The pattern is clear: San Diego’s ultra‑luxury homeowners are listing less frequently, creating an increasingly constrained environment for buyers seeking top‑tier properties.
Active Listings Drop for the 6th Straight Month
December’s slowdown wasn’t isolated. Overall active listings fell to just 99, marking the sixth consecutive month of declining inventory in the ultra‑luxury segment. This is the lowest number of active $5M+ listings since April 2023, when the market briefly dipped to 94.
As of January 16, the number has climbed to 173 active $5M+ homes, but this is still relatively tight supply considering the size and diversity of San Diego County.
For buyers, this means increased competition and fewer high‑quality options.
For sellers, it means rising visibility and reduced competition—an optimal environment for listing.
Pricing Trends: Rare Discounts Are Emerging
Historically, $5M+ homes in San Diego don’t sell at asking price. This segment typically includes architecturally significant estates, ocean‑view properties, gated compounds, and custom homes—each with unique features that can make pricing complex.
Recent data continues to support this pattern:
However, despite occasional discounts, prices are holding steady overall—supported by shrinking supply and ongoing demand from both local and out‑of‑state buyers.
Months’ Supply Drops to a 5‑Year Low
One of the most telling indicators of market strength is Months’ Supply, which reflects how long it would take to sell all current inventory at the present pace.
A drop from 8.1 to 4.1 months in a year is significant—nearly a 50% contraction in supply. This places the $5M+ market near a five‑year inventory low, showing how dramatically new listings have slowed.
This tightening is creating a subtle shift in leverage:
Days on Market Spike — But Here’s Why It’s Not What It Seems
Average Days on Market jumped in November, but the increase isn’t driven by slow‑selling new listings. Instead:
This skew suggests the spike is seasonal rather than a sign of falling demand in the ultra‑luxury tier.
Top San Diego Sale in December
The highest‑priced closed sale in December was:
This underscores the continued strength of coastal luxury and the premium commanded by homes with exceptional views and location.
What Buyers Should Know Right Now
If you’re considering buying a $5M+ property in San Diego:
1. Inventory is Tightening
With new listings hitting two‑year lows, waiting may mean fewer options.
2. Negotiation Power Exists — But Only on Some Properties
Selling at ~92% of original list shows room for value‑driven offers on certain homes.
3. Unique Properties Move Fast
Homes in A+ locations or with modern upgrades don’t linger, even in a tight‑supply market.
What Sellers Should Know Right Now
If you’re thinking about listing your ultra‑luxury property:
1. You Have Less Competition Than Ever
Six straight months of declining inventory is a golden opportunity.
2. Buyers Are Still Active in This Price Range
Demand hasn’t disappeared—it’s simply more discerning.
3. Strategic Timing Can Maximize Your Sale Price
Listing before spring, while inventory remains low, can increase visibility and leverage.
Thinking About Buying or Selling a $5M+ Luxury Home in San Diego?
The ultra‑luxury market continues to evolve, offering unique opportunities for both buyers and sellers. With fewer new listings, rising demand, and tightening inventory, now is a crucial moment to understand your position and plan your next step.
If you’d like to explore current $5M+ opportunities or evaluate your home’s market value, I’d be happy to help build a strategy tailored to your goals.