Is the Poway Housing Market Cooling? Why Rising Inventory and 2-Year Low Inventory Months Tell Two Different Stories
by Bernie Linden
The San Diego Real Estate Landscape: Poway in Focus
The broader San Diego County real estate market continues to face a tug-of-war between persistent low inventory and changing buyer affordability. Throughout San Diego, high demand keeps desirable neighborhoods competitive, but we are beginning to see slight seasonal cooling and inventory normalization. Here in Poway (92064), a highly sought-after community known for its excellent schools and spacious properties, the market remains technically classified as a Seller’s Market with a median sold price of $1,361,250 (down slightly by 3.11% month-over-month). Homes are moving incredibly fast, boasting a median of just 9 days on market (DOM)—a significant 35.71% drop from last month, meaning well-priced homes are still disappearing in a little over a week.
3 Key Takeaways from the June 2026 Data
1. The Inventory Pivot: Rising New Listings Are Loosening the Market
While we have spent the last couple of years starving for inventory, we are seeing a clear upward trend in choice.
The Trend: New listings have steadily climbed every single month since December’s low of 22 homes, reaching 55 new listings in June.
The Impact: This influx has pushed active listings up 18% over the last four months (rising from 61 to 72 active homes). Although June closed with 72 active listings—down significantly from the extreme spike of 141 listings in June 2025—the month-over-month trajectory shows that buyers finally have room to breathe and negotiate.
2. Months’ Supply is Low, but Inches Upward
The Trend: Poway’s Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) remains near a historic two-year low, hovering around the 2-to-2.4-month mark since February. June 2026 officially registered 2.39 months of inventory (an increase of 13.81% month-over-month).
What it means: While 2.39 months is still firmly in seller-favorable territory (a balanced market is typically 4 to 6 months), the steady increase from the flat 2-month floor signals that supply is slowly clawing its way back compared to the tightest periods of early spring.
3. Price Per Square Foot: A Gentle Descent from Peak Years
Average active listings currently sit at $679/SF, while sold prices in June ranged from a high of $3,000,000 ($596/SF) to a low of $820,000 ($628/SF). This slight downward trend in closed price-per-square-foot over the last two years indicates that buyers are putting a firm ceiling on what they are willing to pay, forcing sellers to price realistically to align with current appraisal realities.
Market Outlook: Where is the Poway Market Heading?
Analyzing these indicators collectively points to a gradual transition toward a balanced market. While the low “9 Days on Market” and a 99.8% sold-to-list price ratio show that demand is still incredibly strong, the 18% increase in active listings over the past four months combined with a slight decline in average price-per-square-foot indicates that the market is normalizing.
Expect the remainder of 2026 to bring more price stability rather than aggressive spikes. Sellers can no longer test the market with speculative overpricing; those who do will likely find themselves having to make price corrections. For buyers, the upcoming fall season may present the best inventory-to-competition ratio seen in several seasons.
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Is the Poway Housing Market Cooling? Why Rising Inventory and 2-Year Low Inventory Months Tell Two Different Stories
The San Diego Real Estate Landscape: Poway in Focus
The broader San Diego County real estate market continues to face a tug-of-war between persistent low inventory and changing buyer affordability. Throughout San Diego, high demand keeps desirable neighborhoods competitive, but we are beginning to see slight seasonal cooling and inventory normalization. Here in Poway (92064), a highly sought-after community known for its excellent schools and spacious properties, the market remains technically classified as a Seller’s Market with a median sold price of $1,361,250 (down slightly by 3.11% month-over-month). Homes are moving incredibly fast, boasting a median of just 9 days on market (DOM)—a significant 35.71% drop from last month, meaning well-priced homes are still disappearing in a little over a week.
3 Key Takeaways from the June 2026 Data
1. The Inventory Pivot: Rising New Listings Are Loosening the Market
While we have spent the last couple of years starving for inventory, we are seeing a clear upward trend in choice.
The Trend: New listings have steadily climbed every single month since December’s low of 22 homes, reaching 55 new listings in June.
The Impact: This influx has pushed active listings up 18% over the last four months (rising from 61 to 72 active homes). Although June closed with 72 active listings—down significantly from the extreme spike of 141 listings in June 2025—the month-over-month trajectory shows that buyers finally have room to breathe and negotiate.
2. Months’ Supply is Low, but Inches Upward
The Trend: Poway’s Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) remains near a historic two-year low, hovering around the 2-to-2.4-month mark since February. June 2026 officially registered 2.39 months of inventory (an increase of 13.81% month-over-month).
What it means: While 2.39 months is still firmly in seller-favorable territory (a balanced market is typically 4 to 6 months), the steady increase from the flat 2-month floor signals that supply is slowly clawing its way back compared to the tightest periods of early spring.
3. Price Per Square Foot: A Gentle Descent from Peak Years
Looking at historical June data for single-family homes in Poway, we see that while long-term appreciation is massive, we have pulled back from the absolute peaks of 2024:
June 2026: $659/SF
June 2025: $691/SF
June 2024: $721/SF
June 2023: $617/SF
June 2022: $563/SF
Average active listings currently sit at $679/SF, while sold prices in June ranged from a high of $3,000,000 ($596/SF) to a low of $820,000 ($628/SF). This slight downward trend in closed price-per-square-foot over the last two years indicates that buyers are putting a firm ceiling on what they are willing to pay, forcing sellers to price realistically to align with current appraisal realities.
Market Outlook: Where is the Poway Market Heading?
Analyzing these indicators collectively points to a gradual transition toward a balanced market. While the low “9 Days on Market” and a 99.8% sold-to-list price ratio show that demand is still incredibly strong, the 18% increase in active listings over the past four months combined with a slight decline in average price-per-square-foot indicates that the market is normalizing.
Expect the remainder of 2026 to bring more price stability rather than aggressive spikes. Sellers can no longer test the market with speculative overpricing; those who do will likely find themselves having to make price corrections. For buyers, the upcoming fall season may present the best inventory-to-competition ratio seen in several seasons.